The flare likelihood and region eruption forecasting (FLARECAST) project: flare forecasting in the big data & machine learning era

The European Union funded the FLARECAST project, that ran from January 2015 until February 2018. FLARECAST had a research-to-operations (R2O) focus, and accordingly introduced several innovations into the discipline of solar flare forecasting. FLARECAST innovations were: first, the treatment of hundreds of physical properties viewed as promising flare predictors on equal footing, extending multiple previous works; second, the use of fourteen (14) different machine learning techniques, also on equal footing, to optimize the immense Big Data parameter space created by these many predictors; third, the establishment of a robust, three-pronged communication effort oriented toward policy makers, space-weather stakeholders and the wider public. FLARECAST pledged to make all its data, codes and infrastructure openly available worldwide. The combined use of 170+ properties (a total of 209 predictors are now available) in multiple machine-learning algorithms, some of which were designed exclusively for the project, gave rise to changing sets of best-performing predictors for the forecasting of different flaring levels, at least for major flares. At the same time, FLARECAST reaffirmed the importance of rigorous training and testing practices to avoid overly optimistic pre-operational prediction performance. In addition, the project has (a) tested new and revisited physically intuitive flare predictors and (b) provided meaningful clues toward the transition from flares to eruptive flares, namely, events associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These leads, along with the FLARECAST data, algorithms and infrastructure, could help facilitate integrated space-weather forecasting efforts that take steps to avoid effort duplication. In spite of being one of the most intensive and systematic flare forecasting efforts to-date, FLARECAST has not managed to convincingly lift the barrier of stochasticity in solar flare occurrence and forecasting: solar flare prediction thus remains inherently probabilistic

Cell fate coordinates mechano-osmotic forces in intestinal crypt formation

10.1038/s41556-021-00700-2NATURE CELL BIOLOGY237733-74

Cell fate coordinates mechano-osmotic forces in intestinal crypt formation

Intestinal organoids derived from single cells undergo complex crypt–villus patterning and morphogenesis. However, the nature and coordination of the underlying forces remains poorly characterized. Here, using light-sheet microscopy and large-scale imaging quantification, we demonstrate that crypt formation coincides with a stark reduction in lumen volume. We develop a 3D biophysical model to computationally screen different mechanical scenarios of crypt morphogenesis. Combining this with live-imaging data and multiple mechanical perturbations, we show that actomyosin-driven crypt apical contraction and villus basal tension work synergistically with lumen volume reduction to drive crypt morphogenesis, and demonstrate the existence of a critical point in differential tensions above which crypt morphology becomes robust to volume changes. Finally, we identified a sodium/glucose cotransporter that is specific to differentiated enterocytes that modulates lumen volume reduction through cell swelling in the villus region. Together, our study uncovers the cellular basis of how cell fate modulates osmotic and actomyosin forces to coordinate robust morphogenesis

Landascape education as italian contribution to the implementation of the Agenda 2030

Perhaps it could be suggested to the Commission of Sages who are elaborating the Plan for the National Strategy for Sustainable Development in implementation of the global commitments established by the Agenda 2030, to deepen the theme of landscape education: it could thus make a real original contribution and specifically national protection, of the destinies of the world. In fact, in the Italian landscape, many of those 17 “goals” are embodied which constitute the objectives of the Agenda. But above all in the Italian landscape, as it has been configured in secular history, it is outlined - this is the meaning of this article - a real alternative ecological paradigm, a model of balance between humanity and nature full of future and able to overcome , in friendship, beauty, harmony, conviviality, the often violent and contrasting hybris that yesterday in the West and today also in the East has marked modernity

Initiation of Psycholeptic Medication During Hospitalization With Recommendation for Discontinuation After Discharge

Objectives: Psycholeptic drugs have been used in the older population for years, especially to control delirium and neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) of dementia. However, data from the literature confirm that the prolonged use of psycholeptics may be responsible for adverse reactions in older patients. The aim of this study was (1) to identify how many patients receive the first prescription of a psycholeptic drug during the hospital stay; (2) to evaluate the main sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of these patients; and (3) to verify if the prescribed psycholeptic drugs are continued after 3 months from the hospital discharge. Design: Our retrospective study was based on data from the REPOSI (REgistro POliterapie SIMI) registry, a cohort of older patients hospitalized in internal medicine and geriatric wards throughout Italy from 2010 to 2018. Setting and participants: Patients aged 65 years or older who were not on home therapy with psycholeptic drugs were considered in the analyses. Methods: We did both univariate and multivariate analyses in order to find the variables associated independently to an increased risk for first psycholeptic prescription at hospital discharge. Results: At hospital discharge, 193 patients (5.8%) out of a total sample of 3322 patients were prescribed at least 1 psycholeptic drug. Cognitive impairment was the main risk factor for the introduction of psycholeptic drugs at discharge. Among them, 89.1% were still on therapy with a psycholeptic drug after 3 months from the hospital discharge. Conclusions and implications: Cognitive impairment represents the main risk factor for psycholeptic initiation in hospitalized older patients. The vast majority of these treatments are chronically continued after the discharge. Therefore, special attention is needed in prescribing psycholeptics at discharge, because their prolonged use may lead to cognitive decline. Moreover, their continued use should be questioned by physicians providing post-acute care, and deprescribing should be considered

Relation between drug therapy-based comorbidity indices, Charlson's comorbidity index, polypharmacy and mortality in three samples of older adults.

Background: Comorbidity indexes were designed in order to measure how the disease burden of a patient is related to different clinical outcomes such as mortality, especially in older and intensively treated people. Charlson's Comorbidity Index (CCI) is the most widely used rating system, based on diagnoses, but when this information is not available therapy-based comorbidity indices (TBCI) are an alternative: among them, Drug Derived Complexity Index (DDCI), Medicines Comorbidity Index (MCI), and Chronic Disease Score (CDS) are available. Aims: This study assessed the predictive power for 1-year mortality of these comorbidity indices and polypharmacy. Methods: Survival analysis and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis were conducted on three Italian cohorts: 2,389 nursing home residents (Korian), 4,765 and 633 older adults admitted acutely to geriatric or internal medicine wards (REPOSI and ELICADHE). Results: Cox's regression indicated that the highest levels of the CCI are associated with an increment of 1-year mortality risk as compared to null score for all the three samples. DDCI and excessive polypharmacy gave similar results but MCI and CDS were not always statistically significant. The predictive power with the ROC curve of each comorbidity index was poor and similar in all settings. Conclusion: On the whole, comorbidity indices did not perform well in our three settings, although the highest level of each index was associated with higher mortality